I co-run Arb Research, a research consultancy. For our past work, see: https://arbresearch.com/work/.
I co-run Samotsvety Forecasting. We are pretty good at darts: https://samotsvety.org/track-record/.
I co-founded and advise https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/, a research non-profit focused on epistemics.
Online stuff: